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CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Syracuse remained alive in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament after defeating Florida State 66-62 in the first round Tuesday. With the victory, SU drew a matchup with Southern Methodist University in the second round Wednesday. The Orange faced the Mustangs eight days ago, falling 77-75 after holding a 12-point second-half lead.

Blowing leads has been a problem for Syracuse in recent weeks. It nearly collapsed again in Charlotte against the Seminoles. The Orange led by 16 with 13 minutes left before stagnant offense and poor free-throw shooting allowed FSU to cut into their lead. With less than a minute left, SU’s advantage was just one point, but it iced the game at the line by making its final four free throws.

Now, the Orange get another chance at SMU. The Mustangs limped to the finish line in the regular season, losing two of their last three games, including a seven-point loss to FSU on March 8.

Here’s how our beat writers feel No. 14-seed Syracuse (14-18, 7-13 ACC) will fare against No. 6-seed SMU (22-9, 13-7 ACC) in the second round of the ACC Tournament:

Zak Wolf (26-6)
The slipper doesn’t fit
Syracuse 74, SMU 80

One win doesn’t make you a Cinderella story, especially in a subpar ACC. Syracuse’s win over Florida State was a positive, but the Orange still showed the same cracks that have been obvious all season. Poor free-throw shooting, stagnant offense, and cold shooting from the outside nearly let up a 16-point second-half lead.

The Orange simply can’t be trusted in big spots when the pressure’s on. SMU is another team that needs to win the ACC Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament, and the Mustangs boast a much-more talented roster than SU. SMU didn’t even play well when these two teams met eight days ago and still won. The Mustangs went 13-of-27 from the foul line, including a 6-of-17 clip in the second half.

SMU simply has too much firepower for Syracuse to keep up with. The Mustangs have six players that average at least 10 points per game. SU might have one or two good defensive players, though collectively, they typically struggle. I don’t doubt the Orange’s ability to put up points against the Mustangs, but they won’t get enough stops to advance. To put it simply, Syracuse doesn’t play enough winning basketball, and its disappointing season will end.

Aiden Stepansky (27-5)
March magic
Syracuse 74, SMU 72

Well, well, well. I took a chance on the Orange and it turned out in my favor. And I’m doubling down and picking Syracuse to win again. In most cases, I wouldn’t pick SU to win its third consecutive game. If it matched up against North Carolina or Stanford, I would’ve likely picked the opponent with little hesitation.

But based on the Orange’s recent play, mixed with just falling to the Mustangs only eight days ago, I see SU again finding a way and riding this March magic just a little further. What struck me most about Syracuse’s win over the Seminoles was its defense. It allowed nearly a season-low 62 points and solidified this recent trend of improved defense isn’t a one-off. The Orange have surrendered under 80 points in four of their last five games, a stat that’d seem unfathomable just two weeks ago.

SMU poses a serious threat with its 81.1 points per game and 38% mark from 3, but based on recent trends, the Mustangs are declining. They’ve scored just 72.8 points per game over their last five and are 2-3 in the stretch. This is likely the last time I pick Syracuse to win this season, but I see SU trending upward and SMU trending downward. That’s what March is all about. And that’s why the Orange will live to see another day.

Justin Girshon (25-7)
Not again
Syracuse 72, SMU 82

The last time — and only time this season — that Syracuse won three straight games was when it narrowly defeated Le Moyne, Colgate and Youngstown State to start the campaign 3-0. Even beyond their current two-game winning streak, the Orange have only won consecutive games just one other time this season, defeating Georgia Tech and Boston College in January.

While I’ll give Adrian Autry and Co. their flowers for winning the program’s first conference tournament game since 2022, I don’t see them embarking on a run in Charlotte. SU is playing back-to-back games for just the second time this season. The only other time it did so was in the Legends Classic, falling to Texas and Texas Tech.

With all of Syracuse’s major rotation players coming off intense workloads from last night’s win, I simply think there won’t be enough gas in the tank to pull off an upset. As Zak alluded to, SMU has no margin for error in this tournament and with fresh legs, I see it commanding a wire-to-wire win.

When the two teams faced each other last week, the Mustangs played about as poorly as they could’ve while SU was mostly near its best. Still, the Orange lost. And because I envision Syracuse being impacted by fatigue and SMU playing much better than it did a week ago, I don’t see this contest coming down to the final minutes.

Published on March 12, 2025 at 12:21 pm