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Following back-to-back wins over Stony Brook and Duke, Syracuse dropped three straight games for the second time this season.

The Orange are three games under .500 and likely need three straight wins to clinch an NCAA Tournament berth. Lacrosse Reference currently gives them a 0.1% chance of that happening. Syracuse is coming off a strong performance against Cornell, though its second-half performance, where it allowed nine goals while only scoring four, was one of its worst of the year.

SU’s first opponent of its three-game stretch to end the regular season starts in Chapel Hill against a North Carolina team that has yet to win an Atlantic Coast Conference matchup. The Orange have only won once on the road this year.

Here’s what our beat writers expect to happen when Syracuse (4-7, 1-2 ACC) faces North Carolina (7-4, 0-3):

Alex Cirino (6-5)
Riding the momentum
Syracuse 16, North Carolina 12

On paper, it doesn’t seem like Syracuse has much momentum to work with. It lost its last three games, which included an overtime loss in its most recent outing. That loss just so happened to be against its third-highest ranked opponent of the season in No. 6 Cornell. Syracuse recorded its third-best shooting percentage of the season and caused 10 turnovers, but the most impressive aspect of that win was the Orange’s 7-2 first quarter run. Despite Cornell’s second-half comeback to eventually win it in overtime, SU proved once again that it can hang with the top-ranked teams in the country — though there have also been many occasions where it simply couldn’t.

But a Syracuse team that is on the brink of its worst season since 2007 has nothing to lose going into its final three games of the season, which is why I’m expecting an all-out performance against a struggling North Carolina team. The Tar Heels have dropped their last two games and have the ACC’s worst conference record at 0-3. Tucker Dordevic has only been held below a hat trick in three games this season, and against the 48th-best scoring defense in the country, he’ll give the Orange the boost they need to win their second road game of the season.

Roshan Fernandez (6-5)
The road struggles continue
North Carolina 13, Syracuse 11

It’s nearly impossible to know what version of Syracuse we’re going to see on any given day, but I’d bet on SU struggling more on the road compared to at home. The Orange are traveling to North Carolina on Saturday and are just 1-4 away from the Carrier Dome this year. If Syracuse plays the way it did against Cornell, it’s more than capable of topping North Carolina. But the Orange have proven this season that the only consistency is their inconsistency. They played great against Duke, then lost to Notre Dame by 16. They played poorly against UAlbany and then came extremely close to upsetting the Big Red. If we’re sticking with that pattern, that’d put SU on track for a poor performance at North Carolina.

The Tar Heels managed a season-low four goals against Virginia last week and lost, so they’ll be looking to bounce back. too. If this game were in the Carrier Dome, it might be a different story, but given that it’s not, I’m taking UNC.

Anish Vasudevan (7-4)
(Final) Turning point
Syracuse 15, North Carolina 13

Syracuse sits at 4-7 on the season and the Tar Heels are 0-3 in the ACC, losing to Duke once and Virginia twice. The Orange fared OK against those teams, upsetting Duke but losing by nine to the Cavaliers. That gives SU some hope heading into its final road game, its first time on the road in a conference game since a blowout 22-6 loss to Notre Dame. The Orange had issues with travel to play the Fighting Irish, though, and head coach Gary Gait said postgame the team still looked like it was on the plane. This shouldn’t be an issue heading to sunny North Carolina.

Still, this team is hard to predict. Like Roshan said, inconsistency is the new norm, and the Orange’s last game proved exactly that. They played well for three of the four quarters, but giving up five goals in the third quarter while only scoring once on the other end allowed the Big Red to fight back into the game. SU showed that it could beat the then-No. 6 team in the nation, eventually losing by one score in overtime. But if Syracuse wants to reverse the failures of this season, it needs to play a complete three games to at least get to .500 so it won’t miss the NCAA Tournament. Gait’s tenure has gotten off to a rocky start, but he said this team isn’t going to back down. And in Chapel Hill, I don’t see that happening.

Published on April 13, 2022 at 9:08 pm