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Syracuse closes out its regular season road slate with a trip to Chapel Hill, North Carolina, on Monday to face UNC, which has won nine of its last 11 games. In their most recent game, the Orange fell behind 41-13 against No. 7 Duke en route to a 97-72 defeat — SU’s third in its last five games.

Armando Bacot and Caleb Love average 16.3 and 15.3 points per game, respectively, to lead the Tar Heels’ offense, while North Carolina holds the 32nd-best 3-point percentage in the country, according to KenPom. In UNC’s 10-point win over North Carolina State on Saturday, Bacot scored 28 points and grabbed 18 rebounds.

Here’s what our beat writers think will happen when Syracuse and UNC meet at the Dean E. Smith Center on Monday night:

Andrew Crane (21-8)
Dream on
North Carolina 80, Syracuse 70

Similar to the Orange’s last three losses against Virginia Tech, Duke and Notre Dame, this matchup with Tar Heels — at least on paper — contains multiple weaknesses that have plagued SU throughout the season. North Carolina converts its 3-pointers, and Syracuse’s defense against shots from beyond the arc ranks 313th in the country according to ShotQuality, meaning that the Orange often tend to surrender open looks from 3.

The Tar Heels hold strong rebounding percentages, especially on the defensive end, and SU enters without starting center Jesse Edwards because of a season-ending wrist fracture. And even if UNC doesn’t rely on 3-pointers, Bacot could take over around the painted area like Mark Williams did against the Orange on Saturday. Those areas alone would make it difficult to pick Syracuse here, and the injury to Edwards and potential to not have Symir Torrence only makes it easier to take the Tar Heels.

Roshan Fernandez (18-11)
Can’t keep up
North Carolina 82, Syracuse 78

Syracuse has to win one of its final two regular season games to avoid falling below .500 in the regular season, but I don’t think Monday’s contest in Chapel Hill will be that win. Against Duke, Buddy Boeheim proved he’s more than capable of scoring against an elite defense, a promising sign for SU. But Syracuse couldn’t seem to get any defensive stops against the Blue Devils, and I think that’ll continue against UNC’s offense, one of the best in the country. The Tar Heels rank 32nd in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage and boast three shooters who are above the 38% shooting clip this season in RJ Davis, Brady Manek and Love. Bacot will cause problems for the Orange inside, just like Duke’s Mark Williams did, as Frank Anselem continues to struggle with interior defense. Syracuse is capable of keeping this game close if it shoots lights out, but the reality is that the Orange probably won’t be able to keep up. They sit at 0-8 in Quadrant 1 games and will soon be 0-9 after falling to UNC.

Gaurav Shetty (18-11)
Feelin’ Blue
North Carolina 87, Syracuse 75

The Orange are dangerously close to finishing under .500 for the first time in head coach Jim Boeheim’s tenure. I think the home game against Miami is the true decider of Syracuse’s fate because this game against UNC shouldn’t be chalked up as a win. In SU’s biggest game of the season against Duke, Boeheim admitted that two of his starters, Cole Swider and Jimmy Boeheim, weren’t capable of scoring on Duke. He also noted that Anselem isn’t ready to start for SU. That’s the harsh reality for Syracuse, as this team is simply not talented enough to win against good teams. Mark Williams dominated SU, so I expect Bacot to do the same.

To SU’s credit, this game will be much closer than the Duke loss, but the outcome will be the same. For any Orange fans harboring NCAA Tournament hopes, it might be time to reassess those after the UNC game. The Tar Heels are 1-7 in Quadrant 1 and are currently on the bubble in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. So if UNC is on the bubble, and beats SU, I’d say the Orange’s Tournament hopes are as good as gone, and in reality, were probably gone weeks ago.

Published on February 27, 2022 at 9:37 pm